Yield Curve
A maturity-yield snapshot shaped by policy expectations, term premiums, inflation, supply, demand, credit, liquidity, and instrument selection.
A yield curve plots yields across maturities for a selected set of debt instruments at a point in time. Curves differ by issuer, credit quality, currency, tax treatment, security type, methodology, and yield measure, so the construction must be stated.
📊 Current Treasury Yields
Updated August 04, 2026Yield Curve: Flat (0.45%)
Yield curve is nearly flat — often a transition signal.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Values may be delayed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an inverted yield curve guarantee a recession?
No. Some inversions have preceded U.S. recessions, but lead times vary, definitions differ, and false signals or regime changes are possible. An inversion is one indicator, not a deterministic forecast.
Which yield-curve spread should be used?
There is no universally superior spread. Analysts commonly examine 10-year minus 2-year, 10-year minus 3-month, forwards, or fitted curves. Results depend on dates, instruments, policy regimes, and the economic question.
What can cause the curve to steepen or flatten?
Changes in expected policy rates, inflation expectations, term premiums, supply, demand, risk appetite, quantitative easing or tightening, credit, and liquidity can all affect the curve.
Should investors automatically change portfolios after an inversion?
No mechanical action follows from the signal. Portfolio decisions depend on liabilities, horizon, diversification, valuation, risk capacity, taxes, and the uncertainty around both recession timing and market response.